Footy Form: Round 15 and 16 AFL previews, best bets, tips and money movers
Опубликованно 03.09.2020 18:00
Will Friday night be their night? We take a look at the last game of Round 15 and Round 16’s matches from a punters perspective.
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Can Pendles help the Pies continue their dominance of the Lions? Picture: AFL Photos/Getty Images
BRISBANE LIONS v COLLINGWOOD
Gabba, Friday 7.50pm
IT has been a long time since Brisbane beat Collingwood — over six years, in fact.
But now is as good a chance as the Lions will get to end the drought.
Brisbane should be fresh as a daisy off a 12-day break, compared to Collingwood which is poised to play its third game in 12 days.
While the Magpies have been better in recent weeks, their past four wins have been against teams out of finals contention and they remain undermanned with a host of stars still on the sidelines.
I can’t go past the Lions at the Gabba, given they have made the ground into a fortress in recent years and should be fresh off a lengthy break. Consider Brisbane by 1-39 points at $1.80.
TAB ODDS: BRISBANE LIONS $1.47 COLLINGWOOD $2.70
CHASING THE MONEY – LIONS v MAGPIES
– BRISBANE is coming off bye, with its last game being two-point win over St Kilda 12 days ago.
– COLLINGWOOD is coming off a five-day break since defeating Carlton by 24 points last Sunday.
– THE Lions have won their past three matches and six of their past seven games.
– THE Magpies have won consecutive games and four of their past five matches.
– COLLINGWOOD score a 62-point win last time it met Brisbane in Round 5 last year.
– THE Magpies have won their past six matches over the Lions, with Brisbane’s most recent win coming in Round 21, 2014.
– BRISBANE holds a 6-0 record at the Gabba this season after going 10-3 at the venue last season.
– THE Magpies have gone 3-1 at the Gabba this season and are 9-1 at the venue since 2012
TAB FRIDAY NIGHT SPECIAL
Brisbane’s Charlie Cameron and Collingwood’s Brody Mihocek to combine for 4+ goals is $3
Brisbane forward Charlie Cameron is part of Friday night’s TAB special. Picture: Getty Images
NORTH MELBOURNE v PORT ADELAIDE
Metricon, Saturday 7.40pm
THE cue looks to have been well and truly put in the rack for North Melbourne this year.
The Roos are coming off a bye, but if their last 63-point loss to Gold Coast Suns in their last outing is anything to go by, it’s going to be a long last three weeks for fans.
Also fresh off a bye, the Power have won five of their past six games but haven’t been particularly convincing against struggling sides, beating Sydney by just 26 points and Hawthorn by 10.
Port win, but by how much is hard to judge.
TAB ODDS: NTH MELBOURNE $6.50 PORT ADELAIDE $1.10
ST KILDA V HAWTHORN
Metricon, Sunday 1.05pm
WHAT Hawthorn dished up against Adelaide on Tuesday night was ugly.
And coming off a five-day break and up against a fast, attacking side that is still fighting to play finals, I’m not sure this game is going to be much better for the Hawks.
The Saints let one slip with a loss to Melbourne in their last outing and have now lost three of their past four games.
But they have no choice but to bounce back and win this game if they want to play finals — and they will.
Saints at the -19.5 point line for mine.
TAB ODDS: ST KILDA $1.28 HAWTHORN $3.70
GEELONG V ESSENDON
Gabba, Sunday 3.35pm
TUESDAY’S loss to West Coast spelled the end of any slim finals hopes Essendon still held and another tough game awaits here.
The Cats have won their past five games and are fresh off a bye.
However, byes haven’t always been helpful for Geelong, with the club having
a 1-12 record after byes under coach Chris Scott.
The Cats should buck the trend and win this one, but the Bombers have shown enough in recent weeks to suggest they will keep it close.
TAB ODDS: GEELONG $1.30 ESSENDON $3.50
W. BULLDOGS v WEST COAST
Metricon, Sunday 6.10pm
THE Bulldogs are coming off a bye, while for the Eagles this will be a fourth game in 15 days.
That difference in schedules is a big reason why I think the Bulldogs are a sneaky chance.
The Dogs haven’t beaten the Eagles since their 2016 finals campaign, losing the past five matches between the sides.
But with the Bulldogs close to full-strength and the Eagles missing Josh Kennedy and Elliot Yeo, now is as good a chance as any to get one back.
TAB ODDS: W BULLDOGS $2.30 WEST COAST $1.60
MORE AFL
Can high-flying Bulldog Aaron Naughton help lead his side to an upset win over West Coast? Picture: Michael Klein
MELBOURNE v FREMANTLE
Cairns, Monday 7.10pm
THIS is a must-win game for the Demons as they continue their push to play finals football.
They are coming off a four-day break since their clash with Sydney on Thursday night, but the Dockers are only off a five-day break themselves.
The three certainties here are warm weather, high humidity and low scores.
TAB ODDS: MELBOURNE TBC FREMANTLE TBC
ADELAIDE V GWS GIANTS
Adelaide Oval, Tuesday 5.40pm
THE Crows should have a spring in their step after Tuesday night’s first win of the season over Hawthorn.
However, if the Giants are the real deal they will take the smile off Adelaide’s dial and post a comfortable win, despite the Crows taking the chocolates by 21 points last time these two sides met in Round 12 last year.
TAB ODDS: ADELAIDE TBC GWS GIANTS TBC
CARLTON v SYDNEY
Metricon, Tuesday 8.10pm
NO advantage for either side in terms of schedule, with both entering this game off a five-day break since playing on Thursday.
The Swans best football is good, but they have been up and down.
The Blues scored a seven-point win when these teams met last year and I’d expect them to triumph again here.
TAB ODDS: CARLTON TBC ADELAIDE TBC
BRISBANE LIONS v GOLD COAST
Gabba, Wednesday 7.10pm
THE Q-Clash is back and shapes as one of the best editions yet given Gold Coast’s rise this season.
Brisbane has won five of the past six matches between the sides, including the past three.
But the Suns haven’t been this exciting for a long time.
Brisbane should win, but it should be close.
TAB ODDS: BRISBANE LIONS TBC GOLD COAST TBC
BETS OF NOTE THIS WEEK
$10,000 @ $4.25 on Richmond (Premiership)
$8,000 Multi @ $2.03 on Collingwood (Top 8), Geelong (Top 4)
$5,000 Multi @ $2.03 on Collingwood (Top 8), Geelong (Top 4)
$3,000 @ $2.50 on Port Adelaide (Minor Premiership)
$2,290 @ $1.44 on Brisbane Lions d Collingwood
TAB’S AFL HOT MULTI
Brisbane Lions d Collingwood $1.45
Port Adelaide d Nth Melbourne $1.10
St Kilda d Hawthorn $1.28
Geelong d Essendon $1.30
AFL Hot Multi Price: $2.65
Originally published asBest footy bets: Will Lions break losing run against the Pies?
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